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Therefore, the chances of this mount dropping ATLEAST once on a certain amount of events (marked as x), are 1-0.98^x The currently presumed chance of this item dropping is 2%, that translates to 0.02 in decimals and a 98% chance of this item not dropping, i.e. You can, however, calculate how many attempts it would take in order to be 99% sure this item drops. Therefore, you can never be 100% sure you will get this item, even if you do try a billion times. But, no matter how many times you actually open it, there is a slight possibility you'll never see this drop. And at chances that low, random loot is indeed random.Ī 4% (2%) chance is an average chance of this item dropping from the egg. Comment by LoadyYou are correct, 4% is indeed 1 in 25 attempts ( new data suggests 2%, 1/50), and that is considered random, therefore the percentage is only of slight help - similar to the whelp drops, which are if I remember correctly 1/1000. 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